Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb79c…2ea7 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%42W / 28L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 41% −$392
politics 26% +$136
crypto 16% −$54
tech 9% −$110
other 5% +$1
sports 2% +$97
culture 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +88.7% +70.7% 100% 100% +70.7%
all 70 -14.0% -22.2% 60% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 33% -11.9%
10% -29.7% 17% -20.3%
15% -36.5% 13% -28.0%
20% -42.7% 10% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$64 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses42 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage282d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 12 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 04 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $578 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $2,500 −$104 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 01 $191 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 21 $120 −$80 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 21 $75 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 21 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 21 $183 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 21 $179 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 21 $172 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 20 $198 +$29 +15%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 19 $111 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 19 $140 +$27 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 19 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 19 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 19 $109 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 19 $50 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 19 $140 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 19 $150 +$31 +20%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Feb 19 $120 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 19 $128 +$17 +13%
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January? Jan 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $170 −$170 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $997 +$35 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1,061 −$89 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $979 −$123 -13%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $3 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $337 −$82 -24%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Nov 09 $274 +$87 +32%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $13 +$7 +59%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $34 +$20 +58%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on November 6? Nov 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on November 6? Nov 06 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on November 6? Nov 06 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,300 on November 6? Nov 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Nov 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on November 6? Nov 05 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on November 6? Nov 05 $10 +$30 +303%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on November 6? Nov 05 $10 +$30 +300%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 02 $30 +$8 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $57 1h
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $77 112d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 119d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $847 119d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $498 119d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,357 119d
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese BUY No 85¢ $66 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $14 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $84 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $10 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.38 · official $56.38 (match) · 299 history records