Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb79d…1ad9 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,438 (+9%) realized +$6,417 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate68%32W / 15L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,476per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,045now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$629
7 days+$839
14 days−$309
30 days+$6,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$5,493
other 39% +$207
sports 6% +$530
politics 4% +$257
crypto 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 71% -0.7%
≤30d 35 +12.1% +1.4% 69% 57% -0.4%
≤90d 47 +7.0% -3.2% 68% 49% -0.5%
all 47 +7.0% -3.2% 68% 49% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 49% -0.5%
10% -12.5% 32% -10.0%
15% -20.9% 21% -18.7%
20% -28.7% 11% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$394 vs −$412 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$3,045
Realized+$6,417
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses32 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage42d
Avg bet$1,476
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $3,024 $3,045 +$21 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $603 +$128 +21%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $403 +$161 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,870 +$474 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $436 −$307 -70%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $554 +$172 +31%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,520 +$1,159 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,181 −$949 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12,150 +$256 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9,800 +$2,228 +23%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,013 −$784 -77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,433 −$2,759 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,822 +$1,191 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7,053 −$1,280 -18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $420 +$59 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,474 +$261 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $490 −$74 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14,045 +$6,212 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 23 $9 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 23 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $163 −$14 -9%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $2,329 +$227 +10%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $310 +$31 +10%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $241 +$19 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $603 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $302 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,001 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $60 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 21¢ $129 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $71 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $365 27h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $100 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 38h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $403 41h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,402 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,520 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $502 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $707 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $731 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,474 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $122 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $448 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $897 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $33 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $88 12d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $139 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $603 12d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,045.36 · official $3,045.36 (match) · 314 history records