Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B7 0xb7a0…5bd6 crypto 1138 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,212 (-6%) realized −$23,211 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate94%1071W / 68L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,064
7 days−$15,063
14 days−$15,057
30 days−$17,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,071
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -11.9% -20.2% 88% 0% -93.0%
≤30d 52 -7.1% -16.0% 90% 8% -66.1%
≤90d 821 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 8% -14.6%
all 1139 +0.3% -9.2% 94% 8% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 8% -14.0%
10% -17.9% 3% -22.2%
15% -25.8% 2% -29.7%
20% -33.1% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$554 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$23,211
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1071 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1139 / 1138
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$363
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $245 $244 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $15,645 −$15,050 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $244 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin above 60,000 on June 27, 1PM ET? Jun 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $689 −$689 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $705 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $701 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $470 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $469 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $468 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $395 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $462 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $458 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $448 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $440 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $438 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $221 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $218 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5AM ET Jun 04 $218 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $216 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $215 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $245 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $244 10h
Bitcoin above 60,000 on June 27, 1PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $115 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $26 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $24 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $24 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $16 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $689 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.38 · official $244.38 (match) · 3500 history records