Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B7 0xb7a6…89b2 sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$57,169 (+14%) realized +$57,518 · open −$349
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%47W / 97L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,598per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$3,466est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$5,191
other 15% +$39,576
world 1% +$1,491
politics 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 54 -50.0% -54.8% 19% 17% -46.5%
≤90d 109 -24.5% -31.7% 35% 30% -35.8%
all 144 -20.1% -27.7% 33% 29% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 29% -37.2%
10% -34.7% 28% -43.2%
15% ← realistic here -41.0% 26% -48.7%
20% -46.8% 24% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$5,800) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,554 vs −$4,281 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$2,188
Realized+$57,518
Unrealized−$349
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses47 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$3,466
Open positions5
Markets (closed)144 / 116
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$3,598
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1,320 $1,105 −$215 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $440 $505 +$65 (+15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $450 $345 −$105 (-23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $230 $135 −$95 (-41%)
Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 29 $3,950 −$3,950 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jun 29 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Jun 29 $10,500 −$10,500 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 29 $25,000 −$25,000 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Jun 29 $5,965 −$5,965 -100%
Knicks vs. Timberwolves Jun 29 $1,506 −$1,506 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jun 29 $6,304 −$6,304 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Jun 29 $10,850 −$10,850 -100%
Wizards vs. Grizzlies Jun 29 $8,300 −$8,300 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Jun 29 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Suns vs. Wizards Jun 29 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jun 29 $25,200 −$25,200 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans Jun 29 $3,552 −$3,552 -100%
Raptors vs. Nets Jun 29 $14,650 −$14,650 -100%
Warriors vs. Raptors Jun 29 $26,238 −$26,238 -100%
76ers vs. Bulls Jun 29 $5,367 −$5,367 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jun 29 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Spurs vs. Hawks Jun 29 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Celtics vs. Jazz Jun 29 $18,544 −$18,544 -100%
Pacers vs. Celtics Jun 29 $827 −$827 -100%
Suns vs. Heat Jun 29 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jun 29 $542 −$542 -100%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jun 29 $10,724 −$10,724 -100%
Pelicans vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 29 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jun 29 $8,686 −$8,686 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Jun 29 $2,280 −$2,280 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Jun 29 $2,169 −$2,169 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Jun 29 $4,968 −$4,968 -100%
Clippers vs. Thunder Jun 29 $135 −$135 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics Jun 29 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jun 29 $10,046 −$10,046 -100%
Wizards vs. Hornets Jun 29 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,180 +$818 +69%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $490 −$360 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 +$500 +100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,800 −$374 -6%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $316 −$200 -63%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16,837 +$123 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,800 +$15,200 +317%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,000 −$512 -51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,600 −$5,057 -77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7,600 +$12,400 +163%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15,510 +$17,070 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $460 +$540 +117%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9,100 −$9,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $78 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $172 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $130 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 4h
Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 3d
Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,187.70 · official $2,187.70 (match) · 3500 history records