Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb7a7…55be sports 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$404 (-2%) realized −$404 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%190W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$244
14 days+$349
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$69
sports 28% −$616
crypto 2% +$276
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +27.8% +15.7% 43% 43% +52.5%
≤30d 24 +37.8% +24.6% 58% 54% -18.3%
≤90d 370 +10.7% +0.1% 51% 50% -11.3%
all 373 +10.4% -0.1% 51% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 50% -11.3%
10% -9.6% 49% -19.8%
15% -18.4% 40% -27.6%
20% -26.4% 21% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$44 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$404
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses190 / 183
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)373 / 373
History coverage91d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 373 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $105 +$218 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $68 +$131 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$51 +195%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$37 +365%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? Jun 04 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Burgos CF vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? May 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? May 25 $71 −$64 -90%
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $202 −$202 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? May 25 $71 −$60 -84%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $202 +$89 +44%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 24 $72 +$178 +250%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $202 +$90 +44%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 23 $72 +$188 +262%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $61 −$14 -23%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $202 −$129 -64%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw? May 23 $61 −$45 -73%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $202 +$80 +40%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 22 $82 −$16 -20%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $202 −$111 -55%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $202 +$76 +38%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $202 +$84 +42%
Will CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 22 $71 +$134 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $15 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 10d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $3 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 10d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $13 10d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 74¢ $10 10d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 10d
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 19d
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? SELL No $4 24d
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? SELL No $6 24d
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? BUY No $10 24d
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $102 25d
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 25d
Burgos CF vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 852 history records