Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb7a9…fea8 sports 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$251 (+6%) realized +$331 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 45L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$203
14 days+$203
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$197
crypto 16% +$37
other 4% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 44% -3.4%
≤30d 70 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 44% -3.4%
≤90d 70 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 44% -3.4%
all 84 -0.0% -9.5% 46% 44% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 44% -3.6%
10% -18.2% 44% -12.8%
15% -26.1% 44% -21.2%
20% -33.3% 38% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$331
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage256d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Paris Gentle Mates 40¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$29 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$11 +70%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $59 +$52 +88%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $77 −$29 -38%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $111 −$52 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 28 $41 +$64 +158%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $60 −$26 -43%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $90 +$48 +53%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 27 $50 +$27 +55%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $29 −$23 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 26 $64 +$35 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$14 +54%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$33 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$29 +113%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne Jun 26 $18 +$17 +93%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $96 −$12 -13%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $75 +$47 +62%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $45 −$26 -57%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$8 -24%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $50 +$55 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$17 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$11 +72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$46 +76%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 +$35 +139%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $11 +$27 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs T1 Academy (+1.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$7 +109%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $247 +$22 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 40m
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Paris Gentle Mates 48¢ $41 1h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Paris Gentle Mates 35¢ $41 1h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL Los Angeles Thieves 99¢ $110 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL Paris Gentle Mates 100¢ $105 3h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 52¢ $59 3h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 38¢ $41 5h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY G2 Minnesota 36¢ $43 23h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL Paris Gentle Mates 65¢ $37 23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 6¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 34¢ $22 24h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Paris Gentle Mates 70¢ $40 24h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL G2 Minnesota 31¢ $23 24h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY G2 Minnesota 37¢ $29 24h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L SELL Los Angeles Thieves 100¢ $138 24h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 48¢ $30 24h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Los Angeles Thieves 59¢ $39 24h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $37 24h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Los Angeles Thieves 70¢ $50 26h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut SELL Paris Gentle Mates 59¢ $77 27h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Paris Gentle Mates 37¢ $50 28h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 68¢ $56 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 7¢ $6 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 33¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 51¢ $27 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 57¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 208 history records