Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7ae…c4f4 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$587 (-6%) realized −$584 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$148
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$587
other 7% +$186
sports 2% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.4% -21.6% 56% 56% -29.3%
≤30d 9 -13.4% -21.6% 56% 56% -29.3%
≤90d 9 -13.4% -21.6% 56% 56% -29.3%
all 30 -23.4% -30.7% 53% 27% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 27% -14.9%
10% -37.4% 27% -23.0%
15% -43.4% 23% -30.4%
20% -49.0% 20% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$72 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$584
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage234d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$22 +56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$11 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$12 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$45 -55%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$10 +25%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$95 -92%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$87 -86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $199 +$123 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November Jan 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Jan 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Jan 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $184 +$161 +88%
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 2 Nov 23 $14 +$15 +107%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November Nov 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on November 4? Nov 06 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November Nov 06 $20 +$44 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 4? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 04 $510 −$510 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on November Nov 03 $1,038 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on November 2? Nov 02 $1,037 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 1? Nov 01 $1,036 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on October Oct 31 $1,034 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $1,013 +$21 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100,000 on October 30? Oct 30 $1,012 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Oct 29 $1,009 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Oct 28 $1,000 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $13 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $29 42h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $34 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 9¢ $14 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $115 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $138 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $98 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $345 173d
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 173d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 8¢ $88 173d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 8¢ $13 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.50 · official $57.50 (match) · 78 history records