Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb7b4…ea9d world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4,500 (+50%) realized +$7,142 · open −$2,642
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +175% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +139% what you keep after slip
Net edge+139%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2,248per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$2,642
world 24% +$6,423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+148.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +174.8% +148.6% 67% 67% +258.3%
≤90d 3 +174.8% +148.6% 67% 67% +258.3%
all 3 +174.8% +148.6% 67% 67% +258.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +148.6% 67% +258.3%
10% +124.8% 67% +224.1%
15% +103.1% 67% +192.7%
20% +83.2% 67% +164.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +296% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +175% · $-wt +296% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,236 vs −$50 · ×64.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×128.81 per $1 lost it wins $128.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$3,787
Realized+$7,142
Unrealized−$2,642
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage30d
Avg bet$2,248
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $6,428 $3,787 −$2,642 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,206 +$3,175 +263%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $913 +$3,297 +361%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,330 1m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $902 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $217 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,523 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,691 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,161 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,381 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $402 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $402 28d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? SELL No 99¢ $4,210 28d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 19¢ $463 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 24¢ $419 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 17¢ $21 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 17¢ $9 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,786.58 · official $3,786.58 (match) · 20 history records