Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb7ba…0c60 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+0%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$20
politics 32% −$16
sports 12% +$131
crypto 4% −$1
economics 4% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 131 +5.2% -4.8% 15% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 7% -9.3%
10% -14.0% 7% -18.0%
15% -22.3% 7% -25.9%
20% -29.9% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×14.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage132d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $348 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $302 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $309 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $312 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $352 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $332 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $341 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $284 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $326 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $356 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $343 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $346 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 15 $291 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $339 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $328 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $361 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $359 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $342 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 11 $290 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $362 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $249 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $544 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 4h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 42h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 21d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $302 22d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $302 24d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $309 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $309 25d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $333 25d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $333 26d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $312 26d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $312 26d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $352 26d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $350 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $340 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $340 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $332 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $332 29d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $334 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $334 31d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $329 31d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $329 32d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $338 33d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $338 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $341 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $341 35d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $259 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.98 · official $48.98 (match) · 377 history records