Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B7
0xb7bd…e516
other · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage450d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 0 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $22 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $5 $0 -7%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $5 $0 +0%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $2 $0 +17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? May 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 21 $2 $0 -9%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $7 $0 +6%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% −$2
other 15% $0
politics 8% −$2
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $50 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $21 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $22 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 20h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $45 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $32 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $24 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $46 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 34 -2.7% -11.9% 35% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -10.1%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records