Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B7 0xb7bf…513b other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 203d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$179 (-14%) realized −$177 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$15
economics 40% −$382
crypto 5% +$263
world 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.4% +7.1% 100% 100% +7.1%
≤30d 1 +18.4% +7.1% 100% 100% +7.1%
≤90d 1 +18.4% +7.1% 100% 100% +7.1%
all 8 -14.5% -22.7% 25% 25% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 25% -21.4%
10% -30.1% 12% -28.9%
15% -36.8% 12% -35.8%
20% -43.0% 12% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$74 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage203d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $300 +$55 +18%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $179 −$87 -49%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 19 $100 −$62 -62%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 2? Dec 02 $70 +$263 +376%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.74 · official $347.74 (match) · 17 history records