Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb7bf…b02d sports 924 markets active 2h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,886 (+2%) realized +$9,970 · open −$2,084
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate70%641W / 273L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1,055est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$563
7 days−$1
14 days+$91
30 days−$1,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$1,545
other 34% +$5,996
politics 5% −$1,813
world 1% +$120
weather 0% −$185
crypto 0% −$469
economics 0% +$15
finance 0% +$3
tech 0% +$11
culture 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +4.4% -5.5% 76% 39% -9.5%
≤30d 128 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 55% -12.6%
≤90d 386 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 62% -12.8%
all 914 -1.1% -10.5% 70% 64% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 64% -7.9%
10% -19.1% 54% -16.7%
15% -26.9% 30% -24.8%
20% -34.1% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$317 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$6,078
Realized+$9,970
Unrealized−$2,084
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses641 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,055
Open positions6
Markets (closed)914 / 924
History coverage362d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 914 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $2,500 $4,082 +$1,582 (+63%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $2,500 $918 −$1,582 (-63%)
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 71¢ 48¢ $500 $342 −$158 (-32%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 85¢ 58¢ $425 $290 −$134 (-32%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 71¢ $254 $222 −$31 (-12%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+7%)
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Medvedev 55¢ 3¢ $201 $10 −$191 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $912 +$18 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18 Jun 19 $202 +$120 +59%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 18 $370 +$5 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $403 +$89 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $536 −$212 -40%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $202 +$95 +47%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $402 +$97 +24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $770 +$10 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $810 +$15 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $54 +$2 +3%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $395 +$104 +26%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $150 +$10 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $413 +$287 +70%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1,010 +$387 +38%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $203 +$138 +68%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $310 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Neumayer (-1.5) vs Broska (+1.5) Jun 16 $606 −$606 -100%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $503 +$126 +25%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $202 −$196 -97%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $202 +$119 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $782 +$8 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $402 −$402 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $202 −$25 -12%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $690 +$10 +1%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $202 +$67 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $310 +$5 +2%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $203 +$142 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $400 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$9 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2,080 +$40 +2%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $202 +$107 +53%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $136 +$4 +3%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$21 +21%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $252 +$106 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $202 +$86 +42%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $202 −$202 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $202 −$202 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $201 +$49 +24%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $202 +$96 +48%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $201 +$57 +28%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $202 −$51 -25%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $202 +$96 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Medvedev 50¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Medvedev 50¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 71¢ $504 1h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Medvedev 61¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 72¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 72¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 72¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 72¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 72¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 70¢ $54 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 70¢ $35 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 70¢ $654 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $44 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $44 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $27 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $28 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,077.56 · official $6,077.56 (match) · 3251 history records