Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7c0…960d sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 678d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$390 (-26%) realized −$389 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$20
14 days−$71
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$245
sports 23% −$2
world 7% −$106
politics 5% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 45% -4.6%
≤30d 38 -9.6% -18.2% 39% 39% -26.3%
≤90d 38 -9.6% -18.2% 39% 39% -26.3%
all 44 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 39% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 39% -35.7%
10% -29.6% 36% -41.9%
15% -36.4% 36% -47.5%
20% -42.6% 36% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

678d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage678d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $7 +$13 +184%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $41 −$33 -80%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$21 +210%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +150%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$10 +103%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$4 -41%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$12 +118%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -54%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 +$15 +120%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +77%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$40 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $53 −$52 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $29 +$23 +79%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $200 −$182 -91%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $74 −$74 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $268 −$79 -30%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 24 $131 +$19 +14%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $159 +$91 +57%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31? Aug 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 52m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 17h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $32 25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $25 25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $22 27h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japa BUY 28¢ $32 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $10 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 29h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $21 44h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 44h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $51 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $30 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 46h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $10 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 24¢ $6 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.80 · official $8.80 (match) · 78 history records