Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7c2…51f9 sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,120 (-6%) realized −$659 · open −$461
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%33W / 44L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$1,128
14 days+$1,128
30 days+$1,128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,707
other 19% +$233
world 6% −$35
politics 2% −$79
crypto 1% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +35.8% +22.8% 48% 37% +14.0%
≤30d 27 +35.8% +22.8% 48% 37% +14.0%
≤90d 34 +35.3% +22.4% 50% 41% +14.7%
all 77 +7.2% -3.0% 43% 34% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 34% -14.7%
10% -12.3% 34% -22.8%
15% -20.7% 32% -30.3%
20% -28.5% 31% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$220 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$659
Unrealized−$461
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage698d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Darya Astakhova 36¢ 8¢ $534 $119 −$415 (-78%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 31¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$15 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $113 +$62 +55%
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu Jun 17 $125 +$343 +275%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $499 −$493 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $498 +$121 +24%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $333 +$235 +71%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$16 -16%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 −$203 -80%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $226 +$8 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $200 +$18 +9%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$125 +124%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $255 +$571 +224%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $246 −$243 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $122 +$870 +712%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $57 −$36 -63%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $128 −$126 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $117 −$70 -60%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $96 −$95 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$4 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$56 +114%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $142 +$474 +334%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $128 −$125 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $161 +$277 +172%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $123 −$121 -98%
Zagreb: Marco Cecchinato vs Harry Wendelken May 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi May 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 10 $16 +$12 +73%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova May 10 $5 +$12 +226%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $91 +$58 +64%
ASB Classic: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Jakub Mensik Jan 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Valentin Royer Jan 06 $499 −$499 -100%
Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $207 −$207 -100%
Brisbane International: Marketa Vondrousova vs Magdalena Frech Jan 05 $252 +$138 +55%
ASB Classic: Sloane Stephens vs Renata Zarazua Jan 05 $100 −$92 -92%
Brisbane International: Dayana Yastremska vs Talia Gibson Jan 05 $205 +$147 +72%
Brisbane International: Alexei Popyrin vs Quentin Halys Jan 05 $99 +$106 +106%
Pacers vs. Magic Jan 04 $497 −$497 -100%
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Tulane Green Wave Jan 04 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $241 −$241 -100%
Sabres vs. Blue Jackets Jan 04 $343 +$200 +58%
Rolex Paris Masters: Learner Tien vs Nuno Borges Oct 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Anastasija Sevastova vs Maya Joint Oct 27 $992 −$992 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Arthur Cazaux Oct 27 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva Oct 27 $693 −$693 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Hanyu Guo vs Alina Korneeva Oct 27 $998 −$998 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Darya Astakhova 36¢ $544 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu SELL Alessia Marinescu 100¢ $468 1h
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu BUY Alessia Marinescu 26¢ $125 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $499 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $498 12h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 31¢ $69 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $568 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $84 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $84 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 13h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $50 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $199 17h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $49 17h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $204 17h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $234 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $218 17h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $126 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $100 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $101 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $101 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $100 2d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $100 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.65 · official $170.52 · 147 history records