Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb7c4…9d90 crypto 1587 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$677 (-9%) realized −$677 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%671W / 916L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$18
14 days−$232
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 -2.5% -11.8% 44% 44% -11.2%
≤30d 1444 -6.1% -15.0% 41% 41% -16.0%
≤90d 1587 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 40% -16.4%
all 1587 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 40% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 40% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 38% -24.4%
15% -31.5% 36% -31.7%
20% -38.2% 35% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses671 / 916
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1587 / 1587
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1587 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records