Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7c4…be7b other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-31%) realized −$35 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$8
world 33% −$21
weather 22% −$7
politics 5% −$6
sports 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)4 / 27
History coverage28d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 68¢ 71¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? No 34¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Named storm forms before hurricane season? May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next elec BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 27d
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27d
Named storm forms before hurricane season? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 27d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 27d
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 28d
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $10 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.88 · official $94.88 (match) · 38 history records