Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7c7…744d other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$10
other 36% +$1
politics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 20 -2.2% -11.5% 15% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 20 -2.2% -11.5% 15% 0% -11.1%
all 63 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $77 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $33 −$1 -2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $6 $0 -6%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $72 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $33 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $23 −$7 -31%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? May 09 $16 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $21 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $11 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $33 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $33 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $33 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $14 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.22 · official $32.24 (match) · 175 history records