Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7c8…cf31 crypto 654 markets active 2d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$440 (+3%) realized +$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%320W / 334L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$67
14 days−$177
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -2.9% -12.2% 47% 46% -15.7%
≤30d 654 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 48% -9.4%
≤90d 654 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 48% -9.4%
all 654 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 48% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 48% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 48% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 48% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 46% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses320 / 334
Open positions0
Markets (closed)654 / 654
History coverage22d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 654 Trades
no open positions (126 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1720 history records