Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb7c8…c18b crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$356 (-9%) realized −$343 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,997now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 228d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$13
crypto 44% −$269
sports 4% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 45 -21.9% -29.3% 40% 38% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 38% -27.3%
10% -36.1% 36% -34.3%
15% -42.3% 31% -40.6%
20% -47.9% 22% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$29 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$1,997
Realized−$343
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage228d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1,003 $999 −$4 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $1,007 $998 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 22 $200 −$187 -93%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $58 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 22 $139 −$137 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2AM ET Mar 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 22 $60 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 22 $60 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 22 $40 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 21 $79 +$53 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 21 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 21 $58 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 21 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 21 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 21 $67 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 21 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 21 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 21 $32 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 21 $14 −$4 -26%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 1AM ET Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 21 $20 +$65 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$29 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 21 $40 +$29 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 21 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 21 $80 +$43 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 21 $20 +$3 +15%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,021 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,014 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $13 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $100 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $100 95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 22¢ $56 95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 23¢ $58 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $139 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $50 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $50 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $32 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $30 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $45 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $30 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $20 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $43 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $30 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $16 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $18 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $62 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $50 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $35 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $30 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,996.61 · official $1,996.81 (match) · 126 history records