Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7ca…b6db other 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,249 (-1%) realized −$1,249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%35W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,007per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$25
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$345
politics 37% −$65
sports 15% −$876
economics 3% −$5
world 2% −$10
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -14.7% -22.8% 9% 3% -11.2%
all 146 -3.5% -12.7% 24% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 8% -10.3%
10% -21.1% 8% -18.9%
15% -28.7% 6% -26.7%
20% -35.7% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,341) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$21 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$1,249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses35 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,007
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $212 $212 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,418 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,029 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5,146 −$6 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $2,690 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,403 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,759 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $291 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $470 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,570 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $708 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,784 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $903 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 20 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,404 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,560 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $242 $0 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 02 $437 +$1 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $629 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4,426 −$4 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,185 −$2 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,223 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $3,951 −$4 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,888 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,337 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3,711 −$4 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,977 −$3 -0%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 15m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $493 5h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $494 7h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $284 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $216 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $828 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $829 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,270 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,272 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,189 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,191 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,241 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,243 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,059 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,060 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,197 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,199 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,183 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,185 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,168 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.06 · official $212.06 (match) · 438 history records