Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7cf…a768 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$63
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$7
tech 1% −$2
world 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.0% +18.6% 75% 75% +22.3%
≤30d 14 +22.4% +10.7% 64% 64% +17.7%
≤90d 31 -21.5% -29.0% 39% 39% -10.5%
all 34 -23.1% -30.5% 38% 38% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 38% -12.1%
10% -37.1% 38% -20.5%
15% -43.2% 35% -28.2%
20% -48.8% 35% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage146d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 55¢ 55¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 44¢ $57 $61 +$4 (+6%)
Will EDward Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $69 +$51 +73%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $7 +$8 +119%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 +$15 +32%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $19 +$16 +86%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $7 +$8 +109%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $7 +$8 +101%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $20 +$15 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $9 +$11 +119%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $17 +$18 +101%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $41 −$41 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $22 +$13 +62%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 23 $21 +$19 +90%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Apr 22 $9 +$11 +127%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Kraken vs. Panthers Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Islanders vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Mar 30 $3 $0 -9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Mar 24 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Blues vs. Canucks Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Feb 07 $0 $0 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $67 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $58 3h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $69 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $23 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $7 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 75¢ $45 7d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $19 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $12 11d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $7 12d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $7 14d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $6 18d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $7 22d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 57¢ $20 24d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $9 26d
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $17 28d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $20 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $41 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $22 37d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Ducks 42¢ $9 40d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $22 45d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $5 46d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 52¢ $21 60d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 23¢ $3 60d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 47¢ $7 67d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Hawks 40¢ $6 70d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 44¢ $9 71d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Wild 46¢ $9 73d
Oilers vs. Utah BUY Oilers 48¢ $7 75d
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes $1 82d
Islanders vs. Sabres BUY Islanders 40¢ $6 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.74 · official $126.74 (match) · 67 history records