Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7d0…2f3a crypto 2154 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,234 (+6%) realized +$1,234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%1304W / 732L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$57
14 days+$183
30 days+$782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,354
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 29% -35.9%
≤30d 922 +9.2% -1.2% 62% 62% -1.2%
≤90d 2036 +7.1% -3.1% 64% 62% -3.2%
all 2036 +7.1% -3.1% 64% 62% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 62% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 57% -12.5%
15% -20.8% 52% -20.9%
20% -28.6% 44% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1304 / 732
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2036 / 2154
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2036 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$5 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$4 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$4 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$14 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$14 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records