Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7d1…db39 other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 26% −$25
politics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$6
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
world 4% −$6
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage135d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $449 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $942 −$2 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $248 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $388 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $372 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $57 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $290 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $472 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $771 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $569 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $505 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $713 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $387 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $379 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $245 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $403 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $396 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 39m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $55 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $55 5h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 7h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 8h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 10h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 12h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 13h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 15h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 16h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 18h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 19h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 21h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $52 21h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $3 22h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $55 24h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 26h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 36h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 42h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 43h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 44h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 46h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1426 history records