Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb7d9…c6da sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$57
other 7% −$13
crypto 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -17.8% -25.6% 57% 52% +0.2%
≤30d 23 -17.8% -25.6% 57% 52% +0.2%
≤90d 23 -17.8% -25.6% 57% 52% +0.2%
all 23 -17.8% -25.6% 57% 52% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 52% +0.2%
10% -32.7% 35% -9.4%
15% -39.2% 22% -18.2%
20% -45.2% 13% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$4 +21%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 +$8 +40%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $24 +$10 +40%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 +$14 +54%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -96%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$3 -49%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $87 +$12 +14%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $45 +$11 +24%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +19%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 9h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 71¢ $20 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 10h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 10h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $39 10h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $24 17h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $25 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $3 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 79¢ $57 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $43 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 57¢ $43 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $45 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 90¢ $44 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 71¢ $35 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 91¢ $6 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 71¢ $12 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $10 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 98¢ $7 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records