Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7db…577c crypto 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-23%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$9
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.1% -15.1% 81% 24% -18.6%
≤30d 32 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 22% -32.8%
≤90d 32 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 22% -32.8%
all 32 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 22% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 22% -32.8%
10% -27.3% 19% -39.3%
15% -34.3% 9% -45.1%
20% -40.7% 9% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by May 31? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 25 $1 +$2 +218%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 23d
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records