Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B7 0xb7de…6097 sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$347 (+4%) realized +$347 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 41L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,038
7 days−$1,089
14 days−$887
30 days−$887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,561
other 31% +$290
economics 3% −$68
politics 1% −$46
world 1% −$29
culture 0% +$231
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -31.0% -37.5% 29% 26% -21.0%
≤30d 42 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 31% -18.4%
≤90d 42 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 31% -18.4%
all 56 -6.0% -15.0% 27% 25% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 25% -20.5%
10% -23.1% 25% -28.1%
15% -30.6% 21% -35.1%
20% -37.4% 16% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$101 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage325d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,315 −$1,300 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $53 −$48 -91%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $252 −$92 -36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $152 −$51 -33%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $18 −$17 -95%
Jhon Arias: 1+ shots Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $267 −$115 -43%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 −$15 -48%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $31 −$14 -46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $356 +$497 +140%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $78 +$128 +164%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $561 +$328 +58%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 −$172 -56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$17 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $606 +$330 +54%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $62 +$14 +23%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $72 −$40 -56%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $88 −$5 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $918 +$459 +50%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $256 −$250 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$111 +36%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $924 −$837 -91%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$72 +141%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $117 −$114 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $97 +$26 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $499 +$534 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $103 −$21 -20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $67 −$4 -6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 12 $43 −$5 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $53 +$115 +216%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $96 +$33 +34%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $41 +$59 +146%
Will NewJeans perform again in 2025? Oct 30 $197 −$197 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 11 $77 −$44 -58%
Will anyone say "Tariffs" during Apple launch event on September 9? Sep 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Sep 09 $51 −$12 -23%
Trump out as President in 2025? Sep 03 $102 −$41 -40%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Sep 01 $80 −$29 -37%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 29 $17 +$231 +1344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $154 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $304 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $202 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 23h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $161 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $51 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $50 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 25h
Jhon Arias: 1+ shots BUY No 1¢ $3 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $41 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 SELL Over 16¢ $16 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 SELL Over 17¢ $17 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $21 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $9 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records