Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7e0…2c57 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,261 (+2%) realized +$1,262 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate76%98W / 31L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$112
14 days+$77
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,181
world 0% +$42
crypto 0% +$39
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 60% +19.8%
≤30d 17 -8.7% -17.4% 59% 53% +0.9%
≤90d 27 -4.1% -13.2% 63% 44% -8.3%
all 129 +0.5% -9.1% 76% 26% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 26% -7.5%
10% -17.8% 19% -16.4%
15% -25.7% 16% -24.5%
20% -33.0% 9% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$47 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$1,262
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses98 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)129 / 135
History coverage176d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 −$19 -37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $401 +$25 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $3,094 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $300 −$88 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $499 +$167 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $2,998 +$21 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1,000 −$106 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $130 +$22 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1,000 +$31 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $2,560 −$26 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $400 +$12 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 23 $2,966 +$53 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $60 −$32 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $60 −$42 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 21 $20 −$13 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $210 +$33 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $2,010 +$113 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $10 +$29 +287%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $10 +$26 +256%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 19 $205 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 19 $200 −$97 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $2,000 +$35 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $110 −$85 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 12d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $401 28d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 28d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $101 29d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $124 63d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $100 63d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,094 76d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $212 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.94 · official $298.94 (match) · 379 history records