Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7e4…b67b other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$394 (-1%) realized −$396 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%84W / 76L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$2,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$175
14 days−$93
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$190
crypto 16% +$9
finance 8% +$8
sports 4% −$377
economics 1% +$1
world 1% −$17
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -78.9% -80.9% 19% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 89 -44.6% -49.8% 48% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 160 -35.2% -41.4% 52% 4% -10.8%
all 160 -35.2% -41.4% 52% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 4% -10.8%
10% -47.0% 4% -19.3%
15% -52.1% 4% -27.1%
20% -56.8% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$2,074
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses84 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions42
Markets (closed)160 / 141
History coverage70d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $1,080 $1,069 −$11 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 95¢ $688 $663 −$24 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $35 +$10 (+42%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $18 $34 +$16 (+90%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $2 $19 +$17 (+1037%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+809%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-34%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+725%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+509%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$7 (+401%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+245%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+233%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+173%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1,388 −$91 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $396 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $239 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $613 +$4 +1%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1,074 +$15 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1,423 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $176 +$18 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $885 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $1,909 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $1,380 +$13 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $600 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $90 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $73 18h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $688 30h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,081 30h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $950 33h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 36h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $138 36h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $15 36h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $398 39h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 41h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 41h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 41h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 41h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 42h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 42h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 42h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 42h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $396 45h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $239 45h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $587 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,388 4d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $583 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $751 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $315 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,074.06 · official $2,074.06 (match) · 553 history records