Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7e7…48d5 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,228 (+7%) realized +$2,236 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 31L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$465
7 days−$1,542
14 days+$1,884
30 days+$1,884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$1,353
other 48% +$2,787
crypto 3% +$741
world 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -38.9% -44.7% 38% 38% -15.7%
≤30d 58 -18.6% -26.3% 47% 47% -3.7%
≤90d 58 -18.6% -26.3% 47% 47% -3.7%
all 58 -18.6% -26.3% 47% 47% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 47% -3.7%
10% -33.4% 45% -12.9%
15% -39.8% 43% -21.3%
20% -45.7% 33% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$756) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$440 vs −$323 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$992
Realized+$2,236
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage11d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $304 +$209 +69%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $507 +$473 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $506 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,010 +$505 +50%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $304 −$304 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $755 −$755 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $608 −$608 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $506 −$506 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $507 −$507 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $508 +$556 +109%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 +$422 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,516 +$781 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,014 +$252 +25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$71 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,183 +$674 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $608 +$122 +20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $756 +$285 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 −$15 -3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $509 +$682 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $1,012 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $505 24h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $304 24h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 47h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 47h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 47h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $509 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $507 47h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 47h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,011 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $507 4d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $508 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $508 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $908 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.50 · official $992.50 (match) · 112 history records