Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb7e8…8f37 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$351 (+5%) realized −$100 · open +$451
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%42W / 47L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$227
7 days−$791
14 days+$524
30 days+$522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$129
sports 30% +$828
other 21% −$41
world 0% +$9
finance 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -53.7% -58.1% 19% 19% -51.2%
≤30d 40 -33.3% -39.6% 38% 38% -1.5%
≤90d 40 -33.3% -39.6% 38% 38% -1.5%
all 89 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 46% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 46% -3.1%
10% -20.1% 42% -12.4%
15% -27.8% 36% -20.9%
20% -34.9% 26% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$48 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$451
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses42 / 47
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage147d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 27¢ 70¢ $125 $331 +$206 (+165%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 2¢ 50¢ $10 $252 +$242 (+2425%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $226 +$294 +130%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$74 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $375 −$375 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$11 -30%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $271 −$49 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $143 +$68 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $439 +$192 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$40 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$105 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $550 +$303 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $760 −$250 -33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $535 +$250 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $570 +$468 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $277 +$525 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 16 $25 +$18 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Feb 16 $50 +$40 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Feb 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $72 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $73 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $45 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $24 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $183 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636.06 · official $636.06 (match) · 387 history records