Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7eb…bfbf sports 290 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,062 (+4%) realized +$2,159 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%171W / 108L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days+$217
14 days+$600
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2,196
other 33% −$207
world 1% −$26
crypto 0% −$97
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -12.2% -20.5% 62% 54% -6.4%
≤30d 88 -9.1% -17.8% 61% 55% -7.8%
≤90d 279 -11.1% -19.5% 61% 48% -5.9%
all 279 -11.1% -19.5% 61% 48% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 48% -5.9%
10% -27.2% 35% -14.9%
15% -34.3% 24% -23.1%
20% -40.7% 16% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$74 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,347
Realized+$2,159
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses171 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions11
Markets (closed)279 / 290
History coverage67d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Sweden 95¢ 94¢ $570 $567 −$3 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Over 89¢ 88¢ $178 $175 −$3 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $138 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $138 $135 −$3 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 58¢ 57¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 37¢ 1¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $139 −$139 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $259 +$41 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $68 +$24 +36%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $201 −$197 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $41 +$25 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $203 +$189 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $11 −$3 -23%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $930 +$191 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $451 +$49 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $88 +$12 +14%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $9 +$11 +122%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $179 −$179 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $215 +$61 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,838 +$117 +6%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $77 +$23 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $143 +$157 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $256 +$144 +56%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $279 +$121 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $27 +$13 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$52 +108%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $87 +$83 +95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $977 +$173 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $75 +$25 +34%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $87 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $571 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $139 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $117 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $4 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $61 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $139 17h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $259 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 30¢ $9 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $11 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $29 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $203 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $178 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $273 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $762 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $6 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,346.55 · official $1,346.55 (match) · 1025 history records