Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb7f0…241e crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate100%26W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 8% -6.4%
≤30d 26 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 8% -6.4%
≤90d 26 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 8% -6.4%
all 26 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 8% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 8% -6.4%
10% -15.4% 0% -15.4%
15% -23.5% 0% -23.5%
20% -31.0% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses26 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.20 · official $10.20 (match) · 51 history records