Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb7f1…1c00 crypto 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$875 (-6%) realized −$783 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%26W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$22
14 days−$34
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$477
world 3% −$433
finance 1% −$79
economics 1% −$100
sports 1% +$332
other 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -58.1% -62.1% 9% 9% -4.6%
≤30d 33 -46.5% -51.6% 12% 9% -7.2%
≤90d 98 -70.2% -73.1% 9% 8% -56.6%
all 255 -41.3% -46.9% 10% 10% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.9% 10% -14.6%
10% -52.0% 9% -22.8%
15% -56.6% 9% -30.2%
20% -60.9% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$47 · ×8.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$783
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses26 / 229
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)255 / 264
History coverage144d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $84 $214 +$130 (+155%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 7¢ 8¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 15-21? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $89 $38 −$51 (-58%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $27 $15 −$12 (-43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Yes 30¢ 9¢ $38 $12 −$26 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $49 $11 −$38 (-78%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $62 $9 −$53 (-85%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $55 $9 −$47 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $51 −$48 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $64 −$61 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $57 −$53 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $37 −$35 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $92 +$332 +360%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 26? May 27 $23 −$21 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $27 −$13 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $57 −$48 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 26 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $87 −$75 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $41 −$26 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 25? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 25 $26 −$12 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $28 −$26 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 24 $203 +$416 +205%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $39 −$37 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $51 −$48 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 23 $56 −$31 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $64 +$5 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $28 −$27 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 23? May 23 $60 −$56 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $22 +$103 +474%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 22? May 23 $45 −$28 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $44 +$22 +51%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 23 $22 −$20 -94%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 21? May 21 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 21? May 21 $29 −$27 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $41 −$38 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 21 $33 −$31 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 15? May 16 $15 −$14 -94%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 May 11-17? May 15 $6 −$5 -94%
Will XRP reach $1.70 May 11-17? May 15 $43 −$40 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 15? May 15 $22 −$21 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? May 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? May 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 14? May 15 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $48 −$44 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 30m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 46m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 48m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 50¢ $148 51m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 55¢ $139 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $47 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 7¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $89 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $95 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $59 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.23 · official $400.33 (match) · 446 history records