Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7f2…5616 other 165 markets active 13h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%43W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% $0
sports 22% +$3
politics 18% −$1
economics 10% $0
crypto 6% +$1
world 6% −$8
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.0% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 45 +0.2% -9.4% 22% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 109 -0.8% -10.2% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 161 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses43 / 118
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)161 / 165
History coverage175d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 98¢ 97¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 79¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Centurion: Orel Kimhi vs Giles Hussey May 29 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 26 $16 $0 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary Svajda May 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $21 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton May 25 $15 $0 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 17 $18 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $8 12h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $8 12h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 16h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $9 16h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 24h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $12 25h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $12 25h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $7 25h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $9 28h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $9 28h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $6 31h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $6 31h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $12 32h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $8 32h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $3 32h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $12 43h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $12 43h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $9 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $9 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $6 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $6 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.37 · official $20.94 (match) · 547 history records