Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7f3…dc1b politics 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$16
politics 26% −$12
sports 21% −$14
crypto 9% −$9
economics 9% +$2
culture 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$39
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 79 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.0%
all 172 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 143
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage167d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $453 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 07 $112 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 07 $56 $0 -1%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 05 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $93 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $262 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $276 −$4 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $157 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $81 −$37 -45%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 01 $54 −$4 -7%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $254 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $114 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $249 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $268 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $62 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $62 9h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $37 7d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $37 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 15d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $40 28d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $40 29d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $50 41d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $50 41d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $45 48d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $45 48d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $65 48d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $66 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 97¢ $55 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $56 49d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 49d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 49d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $57 49d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $57 50d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 50d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 50d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $60 50d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $61 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 91¢ $61 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 93¢ $64 51d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 51d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 51d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $36 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 712 history records