Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7f3…e279 other 512 markets active 2h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$357 (+0%) realized +$262 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate72%349W / 136L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$5,758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$164
14 days+$221
30 days+$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$509
crypto 23% +$218
sports 7% −$374
politics 4% +$78
tech 1% −$9
world 0% −$193
economics 0% −$5
culture 0% +$19
weather 0% −$30
finance 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.7% -3.5% 87% 47% -7.4%
≤30d 38 +8.3% -2.0% 84% 45% -7.2%
≤90d 149 -0.8% -10.2% 73% 32% -9.8%
all 485 -1.4% -10.8% 72% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 27% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 21% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 16% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$32 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$5,758
Realized+$262
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses349 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions27
Markets (closed)485 / 512
History coverage395d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Titan launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,233 $1,245 +$12 (+1%)
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $996 $998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $496 $499 +$4 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $499 +$1 (+0%)
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 97¢ $267 $297 +$31 (+12%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $282 $284 +$1 (+0%)
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $251 $253 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $196 $199 +$3 (+2%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 58¢ 83¢ $129 $186 +$56 (+44%)
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? No 82¢ 84¢ $164 $168 +$4 (+2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 83¢ $162 $166 +$4 (+2%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 59¢ 32¢ $236 $128 −$108 (-46%)
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $114 $119 +$5 (+4%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 61¢ $86 $90 +$3 (+4%)
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $66 $72 +$6 (+8%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $59 $68 +$9 (+15%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 56¢ 68¢ $56 $68 +$11 (+21%)
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 56¢ $26 $53 +$28 (+107%)
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 38¢ 38¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 12¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+28%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 10¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+75%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 98¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $84 +$5 +6%
GTA VI released before November 2026? Jun 19 $154 +$36 +23%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,628 +$45 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 18 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? Jun 17 $35 +$7 +21%
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? Jun 16 $91 +$6 +6%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 16 $4,403 +$35 +1%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $120 +$16 +13%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $132 +$31 +24%
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, Jun 14 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 +$4 +6%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $178 +$54 +30%
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $479 +$9 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $22 +$10 +43%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 08 $376 +$22 +6%
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 07 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $78 +$20 +26%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 06 $150 −$148 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $76 +$88 +117%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 02 $61 +$6 +10%
Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? Jun 01 $46 −$4 -9%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $40 +$10 +25%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $193 +$7 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $396 +$4 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? May 31 $395 +$1 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $52 +$48 +92%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 28 $2 +$1 +49%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 27 $1,600 +$23 +1%
Enhanced Games: Mitchell Hooper Heaviest Deadlift Over 500 Kg? May 25 $132 +$23 +18%
Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30? May 24 $496 +$4 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 488 million subscribers by June 30? May 20 $798 +$2 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $803 +$35 +4%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 17 $17 −$17 -100%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 17 $54 −$54 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 16 $284 +$24 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by June 30? May 13 $1,488 +$12 +1%
Will Drake feature Playboi Carti on ICEMAN? May 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $171 +$18 +10%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $4,878 +$32 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $62 9h
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $5 18h
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $4 18h
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $8 19h
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL No 95¢ $190 42h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $698 2d
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY No 77¢ $154 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 49¢ $42 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 2d
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $66 2d
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $175 3d
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 3d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $717 3d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,180 3d
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 4d
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 4d
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $76 4d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $282 4d
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? SELL No 97¢ $56 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $138 4d
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY No 56¢ $56 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $186 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 5d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,758.01 · official $5,758.22 (match) · 2810 history records