Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B7 0xb7f7…f475 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$654 (+23%) realized +$662 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +130% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +108% what you keep after slip
Net edge+108%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$88
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$309
sports 31% +$62
crypto 23% +$222
politics 5% +$161
world 4% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+108.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +143.6% +120.4% 100% 100% +105.8%
≤30d 4 +132.1% +110.0% 100% 100% +91.1%
≤90d 4 +132.1% +110.0% 100% 100% +91.1%
all 44 +130.0% +108.1% 43% 43% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +108.1% 43% +13.5%
10% +88.2% 41% +2.6%
15% +70.0% 39% -7.3%
20% +53.3% 39% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +111% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +130% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +264% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$26 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$662
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage228d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $55 $63 +$8 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $55 $45 −$10 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $32 $31 −$2 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$51 +125%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$23 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$14 +197%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $82 +$80 +98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $12 −$3 -22%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jan 09 $5 +$1 +12%
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31? Dec 01 $14 −$7 -49%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 November 10-16? Nov 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 19 $144 −$144 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $476 −$176 -37%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November? Nov 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November? Nov 15 $22 −$22 -100%
North Korea missile launch by November 15? Nov 15 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Nov 15 $499 −$12 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 16? Nov 14 $7 +$59 +843%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 15? Nov 14 $5 +$59 +1179%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $6 +$105 +1744%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16? Nov 14 $5 +$36 +725%
Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 November 10-16? Nov 14 $3 +$47 +1565%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025? Nov 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025? Nov 12 $7 −$7 -100%
North Korea missile launch by November 30? Nov 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 12 $100 −$69 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 13? Nov 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 9, 11AM ET Nov 11 $5 +$9 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11AM ET Nov 11 $6 +$16 +270%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 11 $50 +$81 +162%
XRP Up or Down on November 9? Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k November 3-9? Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $97k November 3-9? Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 09 $15 +$16 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $486 +$496 +102%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 07 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $148 +$37 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $80 +$67 +83%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $53 +$46 +87%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $50 +$78 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $96 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 94¢ $92 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $41 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 95¢ $161 13d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 47¢ $82 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 9? BUY No 23¢ $17 159d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 159d
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 159d
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 191d
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 191d
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 191d
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 198d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 18¢ $144 209d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $222 213d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $11 213d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $54 213d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $81 213d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $27 213d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $27 213d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $54 213d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 213d
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 213d
North Korea missile launch by November 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.66 · official $248.66 (match) · 124 history records