Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb7f8…8601 politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$5
politics 25% +$1
other 14% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 11% -8.2%
≤90d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 11% -8.2%
all 33 +0.9% -8.7% 52% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 9% -8.5%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 3% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage440d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $33 +$6 +18%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Dec 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $5 $0 +10%
Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof May 07 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 17 $1 $0 -34%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 13 $3 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 12 $29 +$1 +5%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? Apr 08 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 07 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $26 $0 -1%
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days Apr 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $27 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $24 +$1 +4%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $38 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $20 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $24 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $25 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $18 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $8 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $27 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.76 · official $37.76 (match) · 164 history records