Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7fa…3435 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-8%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate70%47W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$49
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$11
crypto 26% −$63
sports 17% −$41
finance 8% +$5
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -22.6% -29.9% 62% 38% -18.5%
≤30d 41 -10.5% -19.0% 66% 41% -14.8%
≤90d 41 -10.5% -19.0% 66% 41% -14.8%
all 67 -10.1% -18.7% 70% 34% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 34% -17.1%
10% -26.5% 18% -25.0%
15% -33.6% 13% -32.2%
20% -40.1% 9% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses47 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)67 / 77
History coverage148d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 55¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 34¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$28 +44%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$13 -65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 03 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 03 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? Feb 03 $5 $0 +2%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 03 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $40 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $47 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 6h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 7h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $11 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $9 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 33h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 73¢ $12 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.87 · official $103.97 (match) · 155 history records