Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7fc…c05b sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-12%) realized −$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$49
other 2% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +17.3% +6.2% 31% 25% -21.7%
≤30d 17 +10.4% -0.1% 29% 24% -29.0%
≤90d 17 +10.4% -0.1% 29% 24% -29.0%
all 17 +10.4% -0.1% 29% 24% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 24% -29.0%
10% -9.7% 12% -35.8%
15% -18.4% 12% -42.0%
20% -26.4% 12% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage30d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $60 −$16 -26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +385%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $69 +$9 +12%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 14 $28 −$26 -93%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $52 +$1 +2%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 9¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 16¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 64¢ $8 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 32¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 76¢ $2 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 76¢ $4 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 82¢ $2 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 85¢ $2 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 89¢ $4 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 89¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 88¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 84¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 84¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 15¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 16¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 18¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records