Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B7 0xb7fe…10c6 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$116 (+11%) realized +$118 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +160% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +135% what you keep after slip

Net edge+135%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%4W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$225

7 days+$225

14 days+$100

30 days+$100

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+134.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+563.3%	+500.1%	40%	40%	+107.3%
≤30d	16	+159.5%	+134.8%	25%	25%	+1.3%
≤90d	16	+159.5%	+134.8%	25%	25%	+1.3%
all	16	+159.5%	+134.8%	25%	25%	+1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+134.8%	25%	+1.3%
10%	+112.3%	25%	-8.4%
15%	+91.8%	25%	-17.2%
20%	+73.0%	25%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +160% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late +315% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$171 vs −$49 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.17 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$283

Realized+$118

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses4 / 12

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage12d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$90	$86	−$4 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$90	$86	−$4 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$90	$84	−$6 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	15¢	$15	$28	+$13 (+88%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil?	Jun 24	$51	+$14	+28%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic?	Jun 24	$51	−$50	-97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar?	Jun 24	$31	+$344	+1116%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 3 Qatar?	Jun 24	$34	−$33	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada?	Jun 24	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$48	−$48	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$44	−$43	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$153	−$150	-98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5)	Jun 14	$51	+$99	+194%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	+$227	+442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States?	BUY Yes	7¢	$93	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States?	BUY Yes	10¢	$92	1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	11¢	$92	1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil?	SELL Yes	9¢	$63	15h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	16h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	16h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar?	BUY Yes	8¢	$31	23h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 3 Qatar?	BUY Yes	1¢	$34	24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$48	9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$44	9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	10d
Spread: Germany (-4.5)	BUY Germany	33¢	$51	11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	11d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$5	12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	12d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.18 · official $283.18 (match) · 35 history records