Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B8 0xb804…bbaf sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized −$33 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$101
other 12% +$65
crypto 5% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -27.9% -34.7% 44% 44% -5.2%
≤30d 16 -27.9% -34.7% 44% 44% -5.2%
≤90d 16 -27.9% -34.7% 44% 44% -5.2%
all 16 -27.9% -34.7% 44% 44% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 44% -5.2%
10% -41.0% 38% -14.3%
15% -46.7% 31% -22.6%
20% -51.9% 25% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$67 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $80 $119 +$39 (+49%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $70 $117 +$47 (+67%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$48 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $302 +$108 +36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$89 -88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $67 −$66 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $89 −$88 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$31 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$103 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $353 +$68 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $71 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 31h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $119 47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $71 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 38¢ $102 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $411 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $302 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $61 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $67 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $89 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $182 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $81 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $263 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $252 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $144 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 68¢ $170 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $152 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $202 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.00 · official $351.00 (match) · 37 history records