Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb807…4475 world 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate31%31W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
sports 18% −$1
other 18% −$2
politics 18% +$3
finance 3% +$2
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.9% -20.3% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 17 -4.3% -13.4% 41% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 71 -1.7% -11.1% 30% 1% -9.5%
all 101 -1.4% -10.8% 31% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 1% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses31 / 70
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage290d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $18 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $63 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $151 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $151 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 19 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $305 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$1 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $369 +$15 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $244 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $170 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $343 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $1 $0 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $448 −$3 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $12 +$2 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $443 +$2 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $7 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $276 −$3 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $145 −$5 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $301 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $156 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $295 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $460 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $159 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $4 $0 -2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -30%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $598 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $825 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $161 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $161 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $161 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $147 −$2 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $134 +$3 +2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $451 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 16 $159 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $146 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $152 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $62 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $63 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $89 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $63 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $112 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $109 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $79 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $72 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 16d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $79 16d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $79 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $35 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $95 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.22 · official $152.13 (match) · 423 history records