Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:33:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb808…780c crypto 512 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,587 (+9%) realized +$1,548 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%240W / 270L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$111
14 days+$115
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,386
sports 0% −$12
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -12.0% -20.3% 46% 45% +1.0%
≤30d 266 -7.9% -16.6% 48% 48% -12.9%
≤90d 475 -11.6% -20.1% 45% 45% -20.4%
all 510 -8.6% -17.3% 47% 47% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 47% -2.8%
10% -25.2% 45% -12.1%
15% -32.5% 43% -20.6%
20% -39.1% 40% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$18 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$1,548
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses240 / 270
Open positions2
Markets (closed)510 / 512
History coverage152d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Up 59¢ 92¢ $81 $127 +$46 (+57%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 49¢ 29¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$54 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$19 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$29 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$64 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$21 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$30 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $83 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $27 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $56 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.61 · official $137.61 (match) · 932 history records