Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb813…b83f other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 25% −$22
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
economics 4% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 191 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage130d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 20 $275 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $648 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $158 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $344 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $231 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $477 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $46 5h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $46 6h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 7h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 9h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 14h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 16h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 17h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 20h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 22h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $39 23h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $39 24h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 26h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 27h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 29h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 30h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 35h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 36h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 38h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 39h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 41h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 42h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 44h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 45h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 47h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.39 · official $45.39 (match) · 1319 history records