Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb815…ee57 other 141 markets active 4d ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-1%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$3
politics 36% −$4
sports 13% −$82
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -6.7% -15.6% 5% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 3% -10.6%
10% -23.7% 1% -19.1%
15% -31.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -37.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 134
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage127d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $118 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $219 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $170 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $115 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $84 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 10d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $74 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $74 26d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $82 26d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $82 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $88 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $88 30d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 31d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $81 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $81 32d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 33d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 394 history records