Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb815…071c other 56 markets active 11h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$14
politics 13% −$6
other 7% −$2
sports 1% +$9
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.1% +6.9% 17% 17% -5.6%
≤30d 17 +6.3% -3.8% 12% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 46 +7.0% -3.2% 17% 11% -9.2%
all 55 +5.8% -4.3% 20% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 9% -9.6%
10% -13.4% 9% -18.2%
15% -21.8% 9% -26.1%
20% -29.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage573d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $97 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $5 +$7 +158%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $77 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $77 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $8 −$1 -6%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $9 +$7 +70%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $6 +$9 +146%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $23 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $46 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $87 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 06 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,529 −$14 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 11h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 14h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $17 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $17 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $6 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $12 11d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.02 · official $30.02 (match) · 208 history records