Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb816…9e90 other 379 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,150 (+2%) realized +$1,150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate64%241W / 136L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 173d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$17,446
world 5% +$137
tech 1% +$21
politics 0% −$42
crypto 0% +$4
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 20% -14.4%
≤30d 71 +31.0% +18.5% 66% 25% -10.3%
≤90d 200 +51.9% +37.5% 66% 30% -22.2%
all 377 +62.0% +46.5% 64% 33% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.5% 33% -33.5%
10% +32.5% 27% -39.9%
15% +19.7% 24% -45.7%
20% +8.0% 20% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +76% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$185 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses241 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 379
History coverage173d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $222 +$9 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $489 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $24 −$3 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $143 +$30 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $38 +$19 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $97 +$309 +321%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $307 −$293 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $4 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $798 +$303 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $160 −$11 -7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $64 −$42 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $491 +$47 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $299 −$283 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $245 +$17 +7%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $52 −$30 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $305 −$304 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $60 −$18 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $264 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $314 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $93 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $315 −$304 -96%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $383 +$112 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $356 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $108 +$13 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 18 $106 −$58 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $733 +$303 +41%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $286 −$38 -13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $413 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $639 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $294 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $157 +$25 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $497 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $400 +$5 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $546 +$5 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $896 +$21 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $900 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $180 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $701 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $133 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $101 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $219 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $225 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $7 20h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $10 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 45h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $35 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3212 history records