Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb819…1a5e world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$20
other 16% −$1
politics 15% $0
finance 7% −$5
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 12 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 17% -7.2%
all 35 +1.0% -8.6% 51% 6% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 6% -8.0%
10% -17.4% 3% -16.8%
15% -25.4% 3% -24.9%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage435d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $62 −$5 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $8 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $65 −$2 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $51 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $59 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $57 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $27 +$12 +44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $40 +$7 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? May 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $3 $0 -16%
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? Apr 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Apr 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? Apr 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? Apr 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $2 $0 -8%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 20 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $10 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $43 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $9 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $61 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $61 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $3 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $4 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $8 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $35 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $23 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $65 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $59 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $15 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $34 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $49 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $59 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.92 · official $52.92 (match) · 102 history records