Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb81d…ed68 crypto 89 markets active 11h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-5%) realized −$8 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate70%58W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days−$23
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$2
crypto 27% −$6
sports 26% −$7
weather 7% −$2
finance 5% −$4
other 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +61.1% +45.7% 46% 35% -6.3%
≤30d 83 +16.3% +5.3% 70% 33% -11.6%
≤90d 83 +16.3% +5.3% 70% 33% -11.6%
all 83 +16.3% +5.3% 70% 33% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 33% -11.6%
10% -4.8% 14% -20.1%
15% -14.0% 11% -27.8%
20% -22.4% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses58 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)83 / 89
History coverage18d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$7 +335%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +257%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +1900%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $32 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $5 $0 +11%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$2 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$1 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 06 $4 $0 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 84¢ $4 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 65¢ $3 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) BUY Spurs 92¢ $5 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $4 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $5 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 90¢ $4 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 92¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.92 · official $9.92 (match) · 226 history records